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%	TITLE PAGE
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\title[]{Macro II} % The short title appears at the bottom of every slide, the full
% title is only on the title page

\author{Professor Griffy} % Your name
\institute[University at Albany, SUNY] % Your institution as it will appear on the bottom of
% every slide, may be shorthand to save space
{
UAlbany  \ % Your institution for the title page
}
\date{Spring 2026} % Date, can be changed to a custom date

\begin{document}

\begin{frame}
  \titlepage % Print the title page as the first slide
\end{frame}



%----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
%	PRESENTATION SLIDES
%----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

% ------------------------------------------------
\section{Introduction} % Sections can be created in order to organize your presentation into discrete blocks, all sections and subsections are automatically printed in the table of contents as an overview of the talk
% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Announcements}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Today: the Mortensen and Pissarides model (canonical equilibrium search)
  \item Heterogeneous agent code emailed this morning.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------
\section{The Mortensen and Pissarides Model}
% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Arrival Rates of Job Offers}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Last time: we assumed that the arrival rate of job offers is {\it exogenous}: regardless of equilibrium, the frequency with which you receive an offer is the same.
  \item Consider an example:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item There is a productivity downturn:
    \item How does a firm respond?
    \item McCall model: the quality of the offer distribution deteriorates, but searchers receive offers at the same rate.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Essentially, slackness in the labor market is due to worker selectivity, not due to decisions made by the firm.
  \item Obviously, firms do respond.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{The Beveridge Curve}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Another implication: there is no relationship between unemployment and vacancy creation.
  \end{itemize}
\centering\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{Petrosky-NadeauZhang_1.png}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

% \begin{frame}
%   \frametitle{Hazard vs. Arrival Rate}
%   \begin{itemize}
%   \item Unmatched firm problem in Burdett-Mortensen:
%     \begin{align*}
%       \pi = \max_{w} (p - w)l(w|w_{R},F)
%     \end{align*}
%   \item The hazard rate is an equilibrium object; the arrival rate is not.
%   \item But what if firms can adjust along the extensive margin in addition to the intensive margin?
%   \item ``Vacant'' firm's problem:
%     \begin{align*}
%       \pi^{V}(w) = -\kappa + q(.)J(w)
%     \end{align*}
%   \item $q$ is the worker-finding rate. Now an equilibrium object.
%   \end{itemize}
% \end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{The DMP Model (``Ch. 1 of Pissarides (2000)'')}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Agents:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Employed workers;
    \item unemployed workers;
    \item vacant firms;
    \item matched firms.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Linear utility ($u = b, u = w$) and production $y = p>b$.
  \item Matching function:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Determines {\it number} of meetings between firms \& workers.
    \item Args: levels searchers \& vacancies $(U = u\times L, V = v\times L$)
    \item Constant returns to scale ($L$ is lab. force):
    \begin{align*}
      M(uL,vL) = uL\times M(1,\frac{v}{u}) = uL\times p(\theta)
    \end{align*}
  \item where $\theta = \frac{v}{u}$ is ``labor market tightness''
  \item Match rates:
    \begin{align*}
      \underbrace{p(\theta)}_{Worker}= \theta \underbrace{q(\theta)}_{Firm}
    \end{align*}
    \end{enumerate}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Worker Value Functions}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Value functions:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Employed at wage w: $W(w)$
    \item Unemployed: $U$.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Unemployed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rU = b + p(\theta)E[W(w) - U]
    \end{align*}
  \item Employed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rW(w) = w + \delta[U - W(w)]
    \end{align*}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Firm Value Functions}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Value functions:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Filled, paying wage w: $J(w)$
    \item Vacant $V$.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Vacant flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rV = -\kappa + q(\theta)E[J(w) - V]
    \end{align*}
  \item Matched flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rJ(w) = (p - w) + \delta[V - J(w)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Free entry equilibrium condition:
    \begin{align*}
      rV &= 0\\
      \rightarrow \frac{\kappa}{E[J(w)]} &= q(\theta)
    \end{align*}
  \item This is just a market clearing condition!
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Equilibrium Objects}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Three key equilibrium objects:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Wages;
    \item unemployment;
    \item $\theta = \frac{v}{u}$ (vacancies).
    \end{enumerate}
  \item How we determine each of these is largely a modeling decision.
  \item Steady-state: pin down unemployment via flow equation.
  \item Free-entry: Assume that firms always post vacancies so that free entry binds.
  \item Wages: Assume that wages are determined by a surplus- (profit) sharing rule.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Steady-State Unemployment}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Flow of unemployment:
    \begin{align*}
      \dot{u} = \delta(1 - u) - p(\theta)u
    \end{align*}
  \item Steady-state:
    \begin{align*}
      0 &= \delta(1 - u) - p(\theta)u\\
       p(\theta)u &= \delta(1 - u)\\
       u &= \frac{\delta}{\delta + p(\theta)}
    \end{align*}
  \item Same as McCall with $\alpha = p(\theta)$.
  \item (Note: no heterogeneity \& $p > b$ $\rightarrow$ all wages accepted.)
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Free Entry}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Free entry $V = 0$:
    \begin{align*}
      rJ(w) &= (p - w) + \delta[\cancel{V} - J(w)]\\
      (r + \delta)J(w) &= (p - w)
    \end{align*}
  \item Vacancy creation condition (i.e., free entry imposed):
    \begin{align*}
      q(\theta) &= \frac{\kappa}{E[J(w)]} \\
      q(\theta) &= \frac{\kappa(r + \delta)}{(p - w)}\\
      \theta &= q^{-1}(\frac{\kappa(r + \delta)}{(p - w)})
    \end{align*}
  \item Thus, mapping between wages and $\theta$. 1 equation, 2 unknowns.
  \item Need equation to determine wages in equilibrium.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Wage Determination}
  \begin{itemize}
  % \item Previous wage determination approaches:
  %   \begin{enumerate}
  %   \item Burdett-Mortensen: wage-posting game, contracts non-negotiable.
  %   \item Postel-Vinay \& Robin: wage-posting game, contracts set wages to equalize value of outside offer.
  %   \end{enumerate}
  \item Workers and firms bargain over the surplus of a match.
  \item Surplus of a match:
    \begin{align*}
      S(w) &= W(w) + J(w) - U - \cancel{V}\\
      S(w) &= W(w) + J(w) - U
    \end{align*}
  \item Nash Bargaining splits this surplus according to a bargaining weight, $\beta$:
    \begin{align*}
      w = argmax_{w}\underbrace{(W(w) - U)^{\beta}}_{Net\;Utility}\underbrace{(J(w) - V)^{1 - \beta}}_{Net\;Profits}
    \end{align*}
  \item Insight from the interwebs: ``When Nash Bargaining, you are really just geometrically maximizing expected utility with respect to your uncertainty about your identity''
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Wage Determination}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Nash Bargaining splits this surplus according to a bargaining weight, $\beta$:
    \begin{align*}
      w &= argmax_{w}\underbrace{(W(w) - U)^{\beta}}_{Net\;Utility}\underbrace{(J(w) - V)^{1 - \beta}}_{Net\;Profits}\\
      0 &= \beta (W(w) - U)^{\beta - 1}(J(w) - V)^{1 - \beta}\der{W}{w}\\&+ (1 - \beta)(J(w) - V)^{-\beta}(W(w) - U)\der{J}{w}
    \end{align*}
  \item $\der{W}{w} = 1$, $\der{J}{w} = -1$ (no endogenous separations/OTJS):
    \begin{align*}
      \beta(\frac{J(w)}{W(w) - U})^{1 - \beta} &= (1 - \beta)(\frac{W(w) - U}{J(w)})^{\beta}\\
      \beta(J(w) + W(w) - U) &= W(w) - U\\
      \beta S(w) &= W(w) - U
    \end{align*}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Worker Value Functions}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Value functions:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Employed at wage w: $W(w)$
    \item Unemployed: $U$.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Unemployed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rU = b + p(\theta)E[W(w) - U]
    \end{align*}
  \item Employed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rW(w) = w + \delta[U - W(w)]
    \end{align*}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Firm Value Functions}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Value functions:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Filled, paying wage w: $J(w)$
    \item Vacant $V$.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Vacant flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rV = -\kappa + q(\theta)E[J(w) - V]
    \end{align*}
  \item Matched flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rJ(w) = (p - w) + \delta[V - J(w)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Free entry equilibrium condition:
    \begin{align*}
      rV &= 0\\
      \rightarrow \frac{\kappa}{E[J(w)]} &= q(\theta)
    \end{align*}
  \item This is just a market clearing condition!
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Wage Determination}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Nash Bargaining splits this surplus according to a bargaining weight, $\beta$:
    \begin{align*}
      w &= argmax_{w}\underbrace{(W(w) - U)^{\beta}}_{Net\;Utility}\underbrace{(J(w) - V)^{1 - \beta}}_{Net\;Profits}\\
      w&\text{  solves  } (W(w) - U) = \beta(W(w) + J(w) - U) = \beta S(w)
    \end{align*}
  \item Unemployed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rU = b + p(\theta)E[W(w) - U]
    \end{align*}
  \item Employed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rW(w) = w + \delta[U - W(w)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Matched flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rJ(w) = (p - w) + \delta[V - J(w)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Free entry equilibrium condition:
    \begin{align*}
     \frac{\kappa}{E[J(w)]} &= q(\theta)
    \end{align*}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Wage Determination}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Nash Bargaining splits this surplus according to a bargaining weight, $\beta$:
    \begin{align*}
      w &= argmax_{w}\underbrace{(W(w) - U)^{\beta}}_{Net\;Utility}\underbrace{(J(w) - V)^{1 - \beta}}_{Net\;Profits}\\
      w&\text{  solves  } (W(w) - U) = \beta(W(w) + J(w) - U) = \beta S(w)
    \end{align*}
  \item Unemployed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rU = b + p(\theta)E[W(w) - U]
    \end{align*}
  \item Employed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rW(w) = w + \delta[U - W(w)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Plug in for the worker v-funs:
    {\small\begin{align*}
      (1 &- \beta)[W(w) - U] = \beta J(w)\\
      \beta J(w) &= (1 - \beta)[w - \delta(U - V(w))- b - p(\theta)(W(w) - U)] \\
      (1 - \beta)(w - b) &= \beta J(w) + (1 - \beta)(p(\theta) + \delta)[W(w) - U]
    \end{align*}}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Wage Determination}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Nash Bargaining splits this surplus according to a bargaining weight, $\beta$:
    \begin{align*}
      w &= argmax_{w}\underbrace{(W(w) - U)^{\beta}}_{Net\;Utility}\underbrace{(J(w) - V)^{1 - \beta}}_{Net\;Profits}\\
      w&\text{  solves  } (W(w) - U) = \beta(W(w) + J(w) - U) = \beta S(w)
    \end{align*}
  \item Matched flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rJ(w) = (p - w) + \delta[V - J(w)]
    \end{align*}
  % \item Free entry equilibrium condition:
  %   \begin{align*}
  %    \frac{\kappa}{E[J(w)]} &= q(\theta)
  %   \end{align*}
  \item Plug in:
    {\small\begin{align*}
      \beta J(w) &= (1 - \beta)[w - \delta(U - V(w)) - b - p(\theta)(W(w) - U)] \\
      (1 - \beta)(w - b) &= \beta J(w) + (1 - \beta)(p(\theta) + \delta)[W(w) - U]\\
      (1 - \beta)(w - b) &= \beta(p - w - \delta J(w)) + (1 - \beta)(p(\theta) + \delta)[W(w) - U]
    \end{align*}}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Wage Determination}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Note that $\beta S(w) = [W(w) - U]$
    \begin{align*}
      (1 - \beta)(w - b) &= \beta(p - w - \delta J(w)) \\&+ (1 - \beta)(p(\theta) + \delta)\beta S(w)
    \end{align*}
  \item And $(1 - \beta)S(w) = J(w)\rightarrow S(w) = \frac{J(w)}{1 - \beta}$
    \begin{align*}
      (1 - \beta)(w - b) &= \beta(p - w - \delta J(w)) \\&+ (1 - \beta)(p(\theta) + \delta)\beta\frac{J(w)}{1 - \beta}\\
      w &= (1 - \beta) b + \beta p + p(\theta)\beta J(w)
    \end{align*}
  \item Free entry condition: $q(\theta) = \frac{\kappa}{J(w)}\rightarrow p(\theta) = \frac{\theta\kappa}{J(w)}$
    \begin{align*}
      w &= (1 - \beta) b + \beta p + \beta\theta\kappa
    \end{align*}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------
\section{Computation}
% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Computation}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item How would we solve this model?
  \item Need way to compute three equilibrium objects:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Wages;
    \item unemployment;
    \item $\theta = \frac{v}{u}$ (vacancies).
    \end{enumerate}
  \item How we determine each of these is largely a modeling decision.
  \item Steady-state: pin down unemployment via flow equation.
  \item Free-entry: Assume that firms always post vacancies so that free entry binds.
  \item Wages: Assume that wages are determined by a surplus- (profit) sharing rule.
  \item Computation:
    \begin{itemize}
    \item Wages, vacancies: depend on surplus.
    \item Unemployment: law of motion.
    \end{itemize}
  \item Here: add aggregate shocks.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Worker Value Functions}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Value functions:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Employed at wage w: $W(w)$
    \item Unemployed: $U$.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Unemployed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rU(z) = b + p(\theta)E[W(w,z) - U(z)] + \gamma E[U(z') - U(z)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Employed flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rW(w,z) &= w(z) + \delta[U(z) - W(w,z)] \\&+ \gamma E[W(w',z') - W(w,z)]
    \end{align*}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Firm Value Functions}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Value functions:
    \begin{enumerate}
    \item Filled, paying wage w: $J(w)$
    \item Vacant $V$.
    \end{enumerate}
  \item Vacant flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rV(z) = -\kappa + q(\theta(z))E[J(w,z) - V(z)] + \gamma [V(z') - V(w,z)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Matched flow value:
    \begin{align*}
      rJ(w,z) &= (z + p - w) + \delta[V(z) - J(w,z)] \\&+ \gamma [J(w',z') - J(w,z)]
    \end{align*}
  \item Free entry equilibrium condition:
    \begin{align*}
      rV &= 0\\
      \rightarrow \frac{\kappa}{E[J(w,z)]} &= q(\theta)
    \end{align*}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Computation}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Surplus of a match:
    \begin{align*}
      S(w,z) &= W(w,z) + J(w,z) - U(z) - \cancel{V(z)}\\
      S(w,z) &= W(w,z) + J(w,z) - U(z)
    \end{align*}
  \item Plugging in and using $\beta S(w,z)$ is workers surplus and $(1 - \beta)S(w,z)$ is firm surplus:
    \begin{align*}
      S(z) = \frac{p + z}{r + \delta + \gamma} - \frac{b + \theta\kappa\frac{\beta}{1 - \beta}}{r + \delta + \gamma} + \frac{\gamma}{r + \delta + \gamma}\int_{z'}S(x)dF(x)
    \end{align*}
  \item This is just a contraction: $\frac{\gamma}{r + \delta + \gamma} < 1$.
  \item Pick $S_{0}(z_{i}) = 0,\;\forall\;i$ and iterate.
  \item Yields vacancies $q(\theta) = \frac{\kappa}{(1 - \beta)S(z)}$.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\section{Dynamics and Predictions} % Sections can be created in order to organize your presentation into discrete blocks, all sections and subsections are automatically printed in the table of contents as an overview of the talk
% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Hazard Rate (from last time)}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item What is the hazard rate of unemployment?
  \item Rate of leaving unemployment at time t.
  \begin{align}
    H_{u}(t) &= \alpha\int_{w_{R}}^{\bar{W}}dF(w)\\
         &= \alpha(F(\bar{w}) - F(w_{R}))\\
         &= \underbrace{\alpha}_{Meeting Rate} \underbrace{(1 - F(w_{R}))}_{Selectivity}
  \end{align}
\item Note, almost every search model generates a hazard composed of the product of a meeting probability and worker selectivity.
\item This is important to remember.
\item Hazard rate of employment (leaving employment for unemployment)?
  \begin{align}
    H_{e}(t) &= \delta
  \end{align}
\item Because separations are independent of state.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Dynamics of Unemployment}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Use hazard rates to understand dynamics and steady-state.
  \item What does the model predict about employment and unemployment?
  \begin{align}
    \dot{u} &= \delta (1 - u) - \alpha (1 - F(w_{R}))u\\
    \dot{e} &= \alpha (1 - F(w_{R}))(1 - e) - \delta e
  \end{align}
\item Steady-state: $\dot{u} = 0$, $\dot{e} = 0$:
  \begin{align}
    0 &= \delta (1 - u) - \alpha (1 - F(w_{R}))u\\
    \rightarrow u &= \frac{\delta}{\delta + \alpha (1 - F(w_{R}))}\\
    0 &= \alpha (1 - F(w_{R}))(1 - e) - \delta e\\
   \rightarrow e &= \frac{\alpha (1 - F(w_{R}))}{\alpha (1 - F(w_{R})) + \delta}
  \end{align}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% ------------------------------------------------

\section{Conclusion}
% ------------------------------------------------

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Next Time}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item One of:
    \begin{itemize}
    \item Endogenous separations (probably);
    \item Efficiency in search (Hosios Condition);
    \item or Directed/competitive search.
    \end{itemize}
  \item HW6 due 5/8
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


\end{document}